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ECMWF 46-day stays on track with unsettled south in April

The new ECMWF 46-day model run has stayed with its ideas of a trough developing to the southwest, higher heights to the north of the UK, and the resulting development of a south to southeasterly flow.

The good news is that the CFS and JMA are also in agreement and so our confidence in the forecast overview for April is, for a longer range forecast, relatively high.

The chart to the left is the CFS representation for April, and while it has higher pressure east than the ECMWF, the idea of the trough to the southwest is one with which the ECMWF agrees.

Up to the 16th the ECMWF46 goes with a trough extending from the southern UK and into west of Europe. This would bring unsettled weather in the UK, keeping low pressure tracking further south that usual and tending to bring rain or showers to much of Ireland too. Higher than normal pressure north of Scotland enhance an easterly flow here and a tendency towards drier conditions, especially in the west.

After mid month hints form the ECMWF46 are for a general build in pressure bringing some fair weather and warmer temperatures. However, with the seas cooler than average around the UK it probably won't be very warm, just milder. having said that, even before mid-month with the winds predominately from the southeast it won't be feeling too bad, perhaps near or just above average temperatures.

Then by the month end there's a though of the jet returning. Pressure building to the east and a more south the southwesterly flow developing. That brings about unsettled weather, especially in the west, although a ridge may keep southern parts of England drier and milder. But for early May the jet may be in place again.

Of course, things could change and you know how longer ranges can be, but for now that is how the ECMWF46 sees things developing.

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