Its a question that gets asked time and time again, "Can I really trust a long range forecast when it seems that weathermen can't predict what's happening in 2-hours time?".

Well, it's a tricky one I must admit! Yes, there are times when the forecast a few minutes ahead can be tricky to nail down, but more often than not forecasts are accurate. I think as well that most would agree that accuracy has improve in the last 10-years or so and guidance from conventional forecasts as to overall patterns in the coming 5-days is fairly reliable.

Yes there are occasions when it goes wrong still - and it seems those occasions are often the most critical - but, and I;m trying to be as objective as I can here, those occasions don't happen very often. Did I get myself out of that one? Good!
Now, looking ahead. The same computer models have been used to develop forecasting guidance for the next few weeks, months and seasons. There's still much work to do as the boffins better understa
nd how the atmosphere and ocean interact with each other, and they work out how to get this mass of data churning through computers and then burp it al out on a timely fashion.

This is where using long range forecasts is a totally different skill to just listening to a TV weather forecast for tomorrow and making a decision based on it.

Weatherweb Premium members are in the highest weather-aware category of any consumers of weather information anywhere the UK and abroad. That's because you will no doubt be watching the Look Ahead and 2-Week Planner videos each time they are issued. You'll be aware of the changes that are happening between each video update and so you will be able to make adjustments as to your own assessment of forecast confidence, and in what the likely outcome of our uttering is likely to be.

It's a skill which you shouldn't underestimate. If you are listening to our predictions, applying them to your own location and business, then adjusting these according to the new data we issue, then essentially you are adding your own value to those forecasts. It's something that comes with time and with skill, as well as the realisation that it's a totally different skill set to that required interpreting the forecast for tomorrow.

So improvements in long range forecasting is not only down to improvements in computer models. It's also because of an improvement in your ability to make predictions based on the information you see and the consistency of it.

Here at Weatherweb Premium we'll keep on presenting you with new data-sets and new information. Of course we will interpret it for you, but by watching regularly you'll be able to make the most of that interpretation and extract maximum value from your membership.

And as long range forecasting models improve, so will our ability to give you guidance, and hence improve your weather planning.