Some musings back I wrote some musings about the impact of the warm temperature anomaly in the Indian Ocean Some models have cooled the Indian Ocean quickly through this summer, but the ECMWF is holding onto the warmer than average ideas. A warmer Indian Ocean can lead to a normal-wetter initial start

It's time for an update on the ECMWF 46-day forecast, and it's good that it is telling a consistent story. Highlights are a better middle part of the month, but we really need to be watching for a more unsettled end. Here's what the ECMWF 46-day it's indicating so far. 3rd May