Thoughts are turning to the winter (yes, I know we are barely into summer) and to next spring.

The CFS does this with sea temperatures during December 2016 through February 2017 ...

Notice the warmer water still in evidence around the UK and the cold 'blob' mid Atlantic? That's leans towards a ridge mid Atlantic and trough formation closer to the UK leading to an unsettled pattern.

But contrast this with the JAMSTEC prediction ... notice how much colder the water is around and west of the UK and Ireland.

Here's the associated impact of that colder water on air temperatures ... warmer for UK, chillier Ireland.

And here's the rainfall anomaly forecast ... wetter Ireland, drier UK.

I still lean more towards CFS, but I do like the look of the JAMSTEC ENSO forecast ... I agree with there -1.0C idea.

All of this may show what we don't know, and much can change, but it's an interesting heads-up.