The CFS is now gathering around 1 peak -1.2 for the coming La Nina event. Notice how the chart below sees a minimum around December 2016 & January 2017, then a rise into the new year. I'm still plumping around to -0.7 to -0.8 mark, and that keeps it within a weak

This is going to be a tricky one! When does the breakdown in the current predominately drier conditions occur? We're being tossed this way and that by the models right now. Our Month Ahead forecast went with an erratic breakdown 7th-11th, and that seems to be about right , although perhaps nearer to