+++ FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY...NOT TO BE REDISTRIBUTED...PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS EMAIL WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION +++
AUGUST 2016 UK & IRELAND LONG RANGE FORECAST - FINAL
----------------------------------------------------
Issued: Monday 1st August 2016
*** Long range forecasts can, and do change frequently. The forecast below is for guidance only ***
HEADLINES
- Unsettled start
- Brief improvement
- Much of second half unsettled
OVERVIEW
Long range models have consistently shown a tendency towards unsettled conditions through August. Sea surface temperature lend themselves to an increased jet stream across the country through much of the month, tending to strengthen in the second half.
Usable weather windows are likely to be hard to come across, and it is likely to be the early stages of the month which favour such conditions.
Wet, windy and cool weather could be the signature of the month, especially in the southern half.
BREAKDOWN
1st to 7th
An unsettled start to the month with low pressure areas sweeping in from the Atlantic Ocean bringing bands of rain and strong winds at time. It is likely to be feeling cool too, with wetter than average conditions prevailing.
8th to 14th
High pressure is likely to be an all too infrequent visitor in August, but may make an appearance this week.
Building into the country the high should bring drier weather with good spells of sunshine and warmer temperatures for a time.
By the end of the week some thunderstorms may be triggered in more southern areas, encroaching the UK from continental Europe.
There is a chance that the weather may become very warm during this period.
15th to 21st
Indications of falling heights over the south of the UK through this week. Higher than normal heights remain to the north.
It may be that te southern half of the UK and Ireland become increasingly unsettled with wet and windy weather prevailing. It is likely to be rather mild here.
Further north higher heights suggest pressure is going to be increased here bringing dry weather and spells of sunshine.
22nd to 31st
Little changes here with a strong jet stream over the country, probably tending to lean towards the southern half. This brings the prospect of more unsettled weather with strong winds and heavy rain at times. It is likely to be cool too.
Improving as one heads north with fair weather affecting much of Scotland bringing sunshine and drier weather here. Warmer in Scotland too.
PROBABILITIES
Temperature
- Very mild 10%
- Mild 25%
- Average 35%
- Cool 20%
- Cold 10%
Rainfall
- Very wet 20%
- Wet 35%
- Average 25%
- Dry 15%
- Very dry 5%
CONFIDENCE
Moderate to high in the overall pattern of the forecast.
