So a new weather week is upon us, and here is what you need to know ... 1. A 'getting warmer' week, with the potential for some hot weather in the east (see the graph below). 2. Plenty of cloud around Monday, bit of drizzle in the west, brighter east and turning

I'm disappointed in the consistency of the ECMWF is recent days. Here (courtesy of Weatheronline.co.uk) are the last few runs....forecast for midday Tuesday 13th (T+216) from todays 12z run ... high pressure over the UK ...   Compare that with yesterdays, Saturdays 12z forecast for same time (T+240)... low pressure over the UK

As we head towards winter (yes I know we are only 4-days into autumn!) it's time to dust down the files and take a look at some of the critical indices which give pointers as to where we might go. I'll issue our preliminary winter forecast text this week (probably Monday morning),

The CFS MJO is far more reluctant to stick with high pressure ideas than more traditional modelling. The wheel below brings us through phases 1 & 2 BH mid month, both more unsettled patterns. So I'm sticking with focus on 12/13th for breakdown.