The NAO has hit the headlines this week as a letter to the journal, Nature Geoscience, claimed that the UK Meteorological Office had improved forecasts up to a year ahead.

Now, this was based on running a model more times than previously, and identifying factors which could influence accurate prediction of the NAO.

To be honest, many forecasting services produce NAO forecasts, some of them far better (in my experience) than the UK Met Office, but the fact that funding has been focused in this area highlights how seasonal forecasting is seen as an area in which improvements can be made.

Or preferred NAO forecast from the CFS is shown below. You'll know that for weeks it has been predicting a negative NAO through the winter months, and indeed that is what it is doing now.

It's the solid black line and grey shading e are interesting in beyond 17th October. Notice how that slips into negative territory through to mid-January. That's showing the weakness of the westerly winds over the Atlantic, and builds on the idea of the easterly winds repeatedly trying to get back into the UK; hence the forecasting of cooler conditions.

Its bad news fro central and southern Europe where there could be a tendency for wetter conditions this winter.

So, you see that the UK Met Office making NAO predictions is nothing new or unusual, it's just that they may have got a little better at it...oh, and they got some publicity too!