There's been much excitement (admittedly most coming from the BBC) about today being a warm day. Several statements have been made about it possibly being 'the warmest December day on record'. I'll say more in the Look Ahead video later, but it's suffice to say such statements are not helpful. Warm temperatures in

Updating the 2-Week Planner video earlier today it was really tricky to convey just how much uncertainty there is in the idea of things becoming cooler next week. I showed this graph....the 15-day temperature forecast for Birmingham, and it clearly shows the slip in temperature.   Here's another graph of temperatures but from several

A very interesting run of the ECMWF46 with a complete flip from mild to cooler conditions. Of course, this doesn't make our forecasting life any easier, but here goes with the latest ides. 9th December to 16th December Calls for a ridge over France, extending into the UK. Trough west of Ireland. This indicates a

The latest CANSIPS (that's the Canadian long range model) is still going for a winter and spring dominated by high pressure. As a Premium member you can see the CANSIPS model through the Pro Models section of the website. Now, it's not all plain sailing (is it every with the weather?). Here's the