On this our shortest day of the year (we'll be welcoming the Sun's return north at 4.28pm this afternoon) , I've just been reviewing our initial ideas for early spring 2018 and I see no reason to change what we've been hinting at for several months now. The analogues for February

Very early days, but something we need to watch. 06Z run of GFS has this for midday on Boxing Day...deep low crossing southern England, wrap around feature with colder air to north. Notice blue colours showing where most rain could be ...   Then look at the 850mb forecast temperatures for the same