The ECMWF gives a classic example of the problems computer modelling has been facing in the past few weeks. It's why I tell my students to 'look at the obs and the past' and not to become 'model monkey's'! The ECMWF operational 10-day from this morning predicts this for Friday 13th October.....big

The MJO has broken out and the prediction below shows it moving through phases 1, 2 3 and then 4. Now, the early phases suggest that there is a tendency towards troughs passing through the UK, most active to the north and bringing rain, again most to the north. However, phases 3

Latest gust forecasts for today and Tuesday show things easing, although the strongest winds are still to arrive in northern Scotland, before they ease here early on Tuesday. Here's the forecast for 7am to 1pm and shows 40 to 50mph gusts over northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland...   Between 1pm and 7pm this