You know I always say don't become a 'model monkey'. It's a mantra I use when teaching new forecasters on the MSc Applied Meteorology & Climatology course at the University of Birmingham. They must get so fed up of me saying it! And here's an example. Received wisdom is that when

Our analogues all hinted at cooler weather arriving into the final third of January and models are now starting to head this way. As always I caveat this; much can change in the days ahead and so this is an early 'heads-up' for you. It might be worth preparing now. Of course