The MJO has been unusually strong for the last few weeks but it's forecast to be turning much weaker as we head into early August.

Here's the forecast for the MJO from the CFS model which shows how we are currently in phase 6, but see how w g into phase 7 around Monday and then goes very week into early August, hinting that models may struggle to predict changes.

Here's the pattern for a usual phase 7 MJO. Notice the deep trough just west of the UK (exactly what is forecast to occur) and the weaker ridge to the east. These combined point to an unsettled or mixed end of July and start to August, backing up our monthly guidance ideas.