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ECMWF 46-day into early 2019

It's time for the ECMWF 46-day to extend into the first part of 2019 (where did 2018 go???)

Remember that what you read below is from just once model, but it is a model we trust.

26th November to 3rd December
Ridge to the east of the UK (see chart below).
Developing trough to the west.
Cloud, wind and rain in western areas.
May be windy in the west too.
Becoming more unsettled and milder for all from mid-week.

4th December to 10th December
Ridge builds back to the south.
Becoming dry again for many.
Overnight frost and fog especially in central and southern areas.
Risk of rain western Scotland.
Daytime cold in foggy weather, otherwise mild.

11th December to 17th December
Ridge remains over the UK, although high slips to south.
Frosty and fog days again in central and southern areas.
Otherwise should be dry with sunny spells, risk of rain NW Scotland.
Drier than average conditions.

18th December to 24th December
Pressure remains high to the south.
Generally dry, sunny spells although again a risk of fog patches.
Overnight frosts.
Some rain northern Scotland.
Drier than average for many.

25th December to 3rd January
Becoming more unsettled and windy.
Temperatures falling.
Risk of wintry weather Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England?
Cooler to south, becoming more unsettled later.

4th January to 10th January
Unsettled, wind and rain.
Wettest in the west.
Risk of gales.
Temperatures close to average although may be colder and wintry Scotland.


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