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MARCH 2019 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE
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Issued: Saturday 23rd February 2018

HEADLINES
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+ Unsettled first half
+ Wind and rain
+ More settled second half, milder

FACTORS AFFECTING MARCH 2019 PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE
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+ High shifts position southwards
+ Weak El Nino continues but may strengthen slightly
+ QBO remains in westerly phase
+ Continued low solar activity
+ Models are in weak agreement
+ Warm temperatures around coasts

UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
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+ High pressure may be further to the east
+ Jet stream may be further south
+ If jet stream is stronger could bring more unsettled month

OVERVIEW
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Models are struggling with their guidance for March. Some suggest a more unsettled outlook than others. For now we are leaning towards the idea of a fair few days to start the month, but then conditions becoming more unsettled rather quickly. It is likely that after mid-month it becomes fair and mild, perhaps very warm, and more settled once again. Note that confidence is low though as the guidance is changing day to day.

BREAKDOWN
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1st to 7th
Fair to start the week with sunny spells and mild conditions.
Becoming unsettled as the week progresses and westerly winds develop.
It is likely to become wet and windy with heavy periods of rain.
Temperatures close to average for the time of year, perhaps mild in the south.

8th to 14th
There are hints of some much more unsettled weather to beginning this period.
Low pressure areas passing eastwards bringing wind and rain with them.
Rain could be heavy, especially in the north and west. Severe gales could occur.
Temperatures close to average for the time of year.
Perhaps improving across the south. Milder too.

15th to 21st
A ridge of high pressure may build into the south bringing milder, drier weather.
Staying unsettled then mixed in Scotland and western Ireland.
Eventually turning more settled and milder in these areas too.
This period could develop into fair conditions, perhaps warm or very warm.

22nd to 28th
Indications of higher pressure building into the south of the UK.
Trough off to the northwest.
Generally fair for all with sunny spells and fair conditions.
It may become warm or very warm for many.

PROBABILITIES
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Temperature
- Very mild 20%
- Mild 30%
- Average 25%
- Cool 15%
- Cold 10%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 10%
- Wet 25%
- Average 35%
- Dry 30%
- Very Dry 10%

CONFIDENCE
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Confidence is low.

**ends**