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ECMWF 46-day outlook through mid-April

It feels like the weather is about where it should be for early March; strong winds, rain and the risk of sleet and snow in places, everything we would expect of early Spring.

The fine weather of late February seems to be something of the past now, but it is set to return.

Below is what the latest 46-day output from the ECMWF is telling us, but beware that the forecast from mid April doesn't agree with ourt official forecast (which is more unsettled).

8th March to 15th March
A strong westerly jet stream.
Cloud and rain, heavy at times as ow pressure passes east (see chart).
Risk of gales in places.
Chilly in the north, milder south.
Risk of brief periods of wintry weather over hills.

16th March to 22nd March
Starting unsettled, westerly jet persists early on.
Ridge of higher pressure building to the south during the week.
Wet start, windy too, especially north.
Becoming drier in the south as the week ends.

23rd March to 29th March
Higher pressure builds during the week, probably east of the UK.
The flow is going to be southerly and will become warm.
Dry for all with lots of sunshine developing.
A risk of a some cloud and spots of rain in western Ireland and northwest Scotland.

30th March to 5th April
High pressure may drift to be over the UK.
Warm and dry with lots of sunshine.
Overnight slight frosts are possible,

6th April to 12th April
Pressure high at first.
Starting warm and dry with good spells of sunshine.
Turning more mixed as the flow turns northwesterly.
Most of any rain or showers in the north and east.
A few showers in the west.

13th April to 19th April
ECMWF shows ridge building back into the UK.
Becoming drier again with spells of sunshine.
A few showers on western coasts and hills.
Warm overall.

 

**ends**

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