As we enter the critical work phases for mid to late summer, the 6-week forecast form the ECMWF model is beginning to look ahead to early autumn.

In fact this EC46-day shows a remarkable resemblance to our analogue forecast for August.

However, as always, this isn't out official forecast for August, but it does give a reasonable guide as to expected conditions

Here's the latest ...

27th July to 3rd August
Ridge to the east. Trough over Ireland (see chart below)
Dry and hot in eastern areas, risk of a few showers.
Showers or some rain in west, mostly Ireland.
Very warm for all, although turning fresher.

4th August to 10th August
Higher than average heights to the northwest.
Pressure remains high to the north.
Generally fair for most after showers in west fade.
Risk thunderstorms to the south.

12th August to 17th August
Ridging over the UK. Flow mainly westerly.
Plenty of dry conditions, especially to the south.
Risk of rain to northwest at times, although below average.
Temperatures warmer than average, not exceedingly hot.

18th August to 24th August
Ridging remains keeping southern Ireland and southern half of UK dry, sunny spells.
Stronger western flow northern Scotland bringing some rain here.
Warm, especially in the south, near average to the north.

25th August to 31st August
Ridge remains to the south, drier here again.
Temperatures above average.
Rain at times in northern and northwest Scotland.
Most places below average rainfall.

1st September to 7th September
Ridge may intensify.
Becomes warmer, sunnier for all.
Drier than average.
Low risk showers in western and north Scotland.

**ends*