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ECMWF 6-week to early February

Here we go then, with the New Year upon us, will the weather be turning colder as we head through January and into February?

The latest 46-day forecast from the ECMWF has arrived ...

4th January to 10th January
Ridge south of the UK, but low pressure at times (see chart below).
Jet stream over northern UK.
Rain and strong winds at times.
Few cold days, risk of wintry showers over hills Scotland and northern England.
Generally dry to south, mostly mild. Breezy.

11th January to 17th January
Ridge maintained to south, drifting east later.
Rain Ireland and Scotland, mostly west.
Drier east and south.
Mild overall, perhaps cooler days in any mist and fog England.

18th January to 24th January
High shown as building east.
Colder east to southeast flow may develop.
Temperatures cooler overall.
Risk of overnight frost and fog.

25th January to 31st January
High is maintained to the east.
Probably dry for much of the country.
Risk overnight frost and fog.
Rain in western Ireland and perhaps west Scotland.
Milder overall.

1st February to 7th February
High stays to south.
Low pressure to north.
Jet stream established northern Scotland.
Rain and wind Ireland and Scotland.
Drier to the south.
Mild for most.

8th February to 14th February
High builds back to the south.
Dry to south.
Less wet Scotland.
Temperatures close to average.


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