As you know we look for teleconnections and patterns pithing global sea temperatures to include in our analogues forecasts for the coming months and seasons.

It's great when these forecasts are consistent and definite, but frustrating when they become wooly and weak.

That's what is happen at the moment with the forecast for ENO going through the autumn, winter and into next spring.

These predictions have a bearing on how the weather of the coming autumn and winter seasons will fair, and so some sort of signal is useful.

However, right now those signals are weak.

Here's the latest from Pietoa Peng's analogue forecasts ... notice the 'smile' pattern when we go into a weak La Nina in September, before recovering into a somewhat stronger El Nino by spring next year....

The IRI model collection forecasts also show that dip to a very weak La Nina pattern later this year, some suggesting the recovery by December too ...

The problem for forecasting is that despite a similar message from the methods used, it is how this impacts the global circulation as there is no definitive signal to work through the atmosphere.

Back to the drawing board and there possibility of some not-so-accurate season forecasts in the months ahead....grrrrrr!