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ECMWF 46-day forecast for March & April

The latest 46-day forecast has just become available from the ECMWF and , as usual, makes for interesting reading.

I do have some doubts as to the detail presented in the forecast below and so I'd be treating this one cautiously (after all, despite 'seeing' the high building next week, the ECMWF model was a few days late with the timing.

But here's what the latest forecast suggests ...

14th March to 20th March
Ridge of high pressure builds.
High expected to be to the east at first, the. over UK (see chart below).
Trough to the west.
Fine conditions, plenty of sunshine.
Rain in western Ireland and western Scotland at times.
Milder conditions.

21st March to 27th March
High stays to the east, extends into the UK and Ireland.
Trough west of Ireland.
The risk of some rain in western Ireland.
Dry pother areas, sunny spells.

27th March to 3rd April
High moves into Norway.
Easterly flow developing over the UK.
Risk of some rain in eastern and central England, may spread to Wales and Ireland.
Dry north.
Cool east, milder west.

4th April to 10th April
Ridge western Ireland, trough east.
Could be unsettled southern and eastern areas with showery rain.
Improving in the west as ridge builds.
Turning drier.
Milder from west, although cool east.

11th April to 17th April
Ridge to the south,
Westerly flow for other areas.
Periods of rain associated with fronts passing east.
Mostly dry in the south.

18th April to 24th April
More unsettled.
Jet stream may strengthen over UK.
Rain, some heavy.
Most in north and west.


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