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Developing the damper summer story

The thoughts of a wetter summer, now that we have said goodbye the extremely dry spring conditions of the last few weeks, is something uppermost in my mind right now.

I keep revisiting years such as 2007 when dry spring weather was followed by torrential summer downpours.

Whilst this year its different, I do have to say that the modelling I am seeing backs up the thoughts now of a near average to wetter summer.

In fact, looking at analogue years of Mays when anticyclones dominated, the majority of summers which followed were indeed wetter with near average temperatures.

An so a chart such as the one shown below does not come as much of a surprise. This is the forecast from the CFS for July, August and September and shows rainfall anomalies. Look at the green colours through England and Wales. yes, Scotland and Ireland tending to be white or yell (showing average to below average rainfall totals), but the majority stay with those wetter conditions.

This is no accident and I suspect it reflects my suspicions above. In fact, the month rainfall anomalies show June, July and August as well being slightly wetter than average in England and Wales, closer to average in Scotland and Ireland.

So I await with interest the seasonal ECMWF which will be update midday on Friday, let's see how that sees summer, autumn and winter ahead.

One thought on “Developing the damper summer story

  1. Oh dear..us farmers will never be happy…got a lot of Hay to make,normally late June early July…could not make it before as needed grass to mature and bulk up….oh dear oh dear

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