The latest 6-week forecast from the ECMWF is pointing to a more unsettled end to June and early July, this backed up by the CFS model, as discussed in yesterdays Look Ahead video.

Things do improve into the middle stags of July, the main uncertainty being how dominant any low pressure becomes, and this is super critical as to the positioning of the high pressure.

Remember, the forecast below is just from the ECMWF model, when long range forecasting we tend to combine several models, so individually they need to be treated cautiously.

However, ECMWF has a good track record, and here's what the latest says ...

20th June to 26th June
Large ridge over Scandinavia.
Trough moves into west of UK (see chart below).
Turning more mixed from the west, heavy showers.
Fewer showers in the east at first, but more later.
Warm overall, perhaps very warm in the east.
Cooler west.

27th June to 3rd July
Trough develops over the UK.
A more unsettled week.
Periods of rain and showers.
Some of the rain and showers could be heavy.
Cooler overall, but still some humid and warm days south and east.

4th July to 10th July
Trough migrates to the east.
Weak ridge builds west of Ireland.
Starting unsettled, more rain or showers.
These may be heavy at times.
A tendency for showers to become less frequent from the west during the week.
Perhaps drier later in Ireland and west of UK.

11th July to 17th July
Less showers are likely during this week.
Ridge may build through Southern Ireland and southern UK, so drier here.
Further rain or showers in Scotland.
Scattered showers or some patchy rain northern England and possibly Northern Ireland.
Near to just above average temperatures for most, but warmer south.

18th July to 24th July
Flow remains mainly westerly, although with slightly higher pressure.
Many places in the south of Ireland and southern UK mostly dry, sunny spells.
Few showers are likely, although probably not heavy.
Higher risk of showers northern England and Scotland as well as Northern Ireland.
Feeling warm overall, perhaps very warm south.

25th July 31st July
Ridge persists southern UK and Southern Ireland.
Staying dry in these areas overall, although threat of few spots of rain west coasts.
More cloud and a few areas of patchy rain Scotland, although lower rainfall than average.
Temperatures near or just above average.

**ends**