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JULY 2020 - FINAL GUIDANCE
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Issued: Tuesday 30th June 2020
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net

HEADLINES
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+ A mixed month
+ Short-lived weather windows
+ More unsettled end

FACTORS AFFECTING JULY 2020 FINAL GUIDANCE
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+ High pressure comes and goes through the month
+ The high is expected to be west of Ireland with ridge building
+ Np current strong signal for the high to be dominant over the UK
+ Atlantic jet stream will be breaking through at times bringing the more mixed weather
+ End of month stronger signal for a more north to northwest wind, cooler weather

UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
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+ Ridge of high pressure could build more strongly
+ Jet stream may be stronger which could lead to more unsettled weather

OVERVIEW
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July is set to be a rather mixed month over the whole of the UK and Ireland. Very early in the month there is the potential for some thunderstorms, before these clear to windoer, more unsettled weather for the first week.
Ridges of high pressure are likely to be building through Ireland and into the UK during the month, and as these do they will bring drier, brighter spells of weather with them. Some warmer days too in these high pressure ridges.
BY the end of the month there are indications that after a briefly, stronger build of pressure which may lead to several days of dry, warm weather, the winds turn more northerly and more showery weather affects all areas. The heaviest of the showers in the north and east, and feeling chillier for all too.

BREAKDOWN
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1st to 7th
An unsettled week.
Low pressure brings windy conditions at times.
Periods of rain passing east, most rain in the north and west.
Tending to be less rain southern and southeastern UK.
May improve for some early in the week.

8th to 14th
A weak ridge through Ireland and southwestern parts of the UK.
Jetstream remains in Scotland.
Drier in southern Ireland, southern England and southern Wales, some sunshine and a little warmer.
Further periods of rain across Scotland, mostly north and northwest.
Limited rainfall elsewhere.

15th to 21st
Ridge becomes stronger off western and southern Ireland, this affecting southern England and Wales too.
It may be that these areas become drier with sunny spells and may be warmer.
A few showers in northern England, the Midlands and east as well as Northern Ireland.
Rain in northern and western Scotland but drier in the east.

22nd to 31st
Ridge of high pressure to the west of Ireland.
Hints of a north to northwest flow affecting all parts of the UK and Ireland.
This would lead to showers, heaviest and most frequent in the north and east.
Fewer showers to the south and west.
Cooler for all.

PROBABILITIES
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Temperature
- Very warm 10%
- Warm 20%
- Average 30%
- Cool 25%
- Cold 15%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 15%
- Wet 20%
- Average 30%
- Dry 20%
- Very Dry 15%

CONFIDENCE
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Confidence is moderate in the overall pattern.

** ends **