It's interesting to keep an eye on sea surface temperature anomalies over the next few weeks and months. Around the UK you can see from the chart below that temperatures are generally above average for the time of year (orange colours). Notice the small area of cooler water off western Ireland

The latest 6-week forecast from the ECMWF is pointing to a more unsettled end to June and early July, this backed up by the CFS model, as discussed in yesterdays Look Ahead video. Things do improve into the middle stags of July, the main uncertainty being how dominant any low pressure

The JMA Has released its summer forecast, and here's a very quick look at the highlights. This is the forecast for July, August and September 2020. Below is the rainfall prediction for the three-months which shows blue colours over the whole of the UK. This indicates a slightly wetter period than average