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AUGUST 2020 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE
===================================
Issued: Thursday 23rd July 2020
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net

HEADLINES
==========
+ Unsettled & cool
+ Brief fair spells
+ Perhaps better later

FACTORS AFFECTING AUGUST 2020 PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE
====================================================
+ Sharp trough bringing rain and showers
+ Trough likely tobe in position for much of the month
+ Ridge may build later to the south with improving conditions

UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
======================================
+ Ridge may be more dominant to the south
+ Trough may be stronger leading to more rain

OVERVIEW
==========
The month is expected to be a more unsettled month when compared to recently. Current indications are that it is likely to be wetter than average especially in the west. eastern and southern areas tending to be less wet. The far south of the country is likely to be having a ridge of high pressure build in as times, especially later in the month which is likely to be bringing drier weather. This edges north later in the month.

BREAKDOWN
============
1st to 7th August
Trough over the UK and Ireland.
Low pressures centred over or northern of the UK.
Jet stream over the area.
Unsettled, periods of rain.
Most rain in north and west.
Windy, risk of gales.
Cool.
Only brief fair spells.

8th July to 14th August
Trough remains over the UK and Ireland.
Jet stream also stays in position over the area.
Remaining unsettled, although better signs of weak ridges building in south.
These may lead to some drier days far south of Ireland and souther UK.
Northern areas remain predominantly unsettled, more rain, especially in west.
Windy at times in the north.

15th July to 21st August
Little changes as the trough is re-established over the UK and Ireland.
The weather is likely to be mixed to unsettled for all.
Wettest again in northern areas and western parts of the UK and Ireland.
Tending to be windy in the north at times.
Cool for all.
Only brief weather windows.

21st July to 30th August
Some hope of weak ridges of high pressure building from the south.
The jet stream remains very close to northern Scotland.
Further rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland at first.
Drier to the south with sunnier spells developing and some drier days.
This drier weather edges north, although still wet at times in far north.
Temperatures rising to feel warmer.

PROBABILITIES
=============
Temperature
- Very warm 10%
- Warm 20%
- Average 25%
- Cool 30%
- Cold 15%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 20%
- Wet 30%
- Average 25%
- Dry 15%
- Very Dry 10%

CONFIDENCE
============
Confidence is moderate.

**ends**