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ECMWF 6-Week to early October

As we wave goodbye to summer (well nearly, that's on 31st August) the ECMWF has issued it's latest guidance forecast which covers September through to early October.

Remember this is just one model, but it is reliable. Details below ...

29th August to 4th September
Trough to the east.
Weak ridge building to the west (see chart).
Drier through the weekend, cooler, sunny spells.
Tending to be turning more mixed and showery next week, especially north and east.

5th September to 11th September
Trough developing over western UK and Ireland.
A ridge in the east at first.
Tending to be drier at first in eastern areas.
Trough to the west brings some showers and rain here.
Tending to be milder than recently too.

12th September to 18th September
Trough fades as ridge of higher pressure builds to the south.
Fair with sunny spells developing for many, best in the south.
Periods of rain in the north as first, these easing during the week.
Milder conditions, warm in the south.

19th September to 25th September
A ridge builds through the week, the high pressure tending to be to the east.
Fair conditions with sunny spells, warm in the south.
Perhaps some showers in the northwest.
Risk of some rain in Ireland.

26th September to 2nd October
A trough is forecast to return.
This brings a more unsettled week, rain in the north. and west.
It may be that southern and southeastern areas are drier for a time.
Turning cooler for most, warm in the southeast.

3rd October to 9th October
The trough drifts south this week and is centred over France.
Rain and showers, most in central and southern areas, some heavy.
Tending to be drier to the north as higher pressure builds.
Cool, especially in the south.



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