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Cold winter signals strengthened by analogues

You'll know by now that winter forecasts are leaning towards conditions being colder than average.

Most major models are leaning towards this idea, with pressure being higher than average across the northern North Atlantic.

So it's interesting to see that the latest analogue forecast are also backing up this idea.

Here's the forecast for 200mb for December, January and February using analogue techniques which compares this year to past years.

200mb is high in the atmosphere and gives a good indication of how the upper flow may differ from average. Red is showing higher heights than average, blue are below average heights.

Notice that large area of dark red in the Atlantic south of Greenland, and the blue area over Southern Europe. This would indicate a tendency for higher pressure to be to the west of Ireland, low pressure to the south. The result of this will be an increased risk of colder, northeast winds affecting the UK and Ireland.


Here is the temperature forecast for the same period and notice that the UK and Ireland are shown as white, this showing temperatures around average through winter a s a whole, but with bluer, colder colours indicating the colder weather in France and Spain as well as Germany and Switzerland.


As always we will be watching this closely, but colder winter weather, certainly colder than recent years, does seem an increasing possibility.

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