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New model, better forecasts?

The GFS Ensemble model has undergone a major upgrade which could have (hopefully) beneficial impacts on forecasts.

The headlines are that once daily, based on the midnight run, the model will be extending to 35-days ahead.

It will also be running at a higher resolution out to 10-days ahead, as well as consisting of 30-members instead of the current 20-members.

So what will this mean for forecasts? Well, homely it will bring an improvement in the accuracy of the GFS Ensemble which, to be fair, is actually quite a good model anyway.

It will be interesting to see how it compares to the ECMWF 6-week forecast models, which itself does a good job. If there is consistency between the two then we can have reasonable hopes for an improvement in forecast accuracy overall.

There is a huge amount of data to process and that is something we are working on here for you as a premium member.

We'll get the new information to you as soon as possible through the Pro Models section of the website and we can all then start to see how it performs.


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