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ECMWF 6-Week outlook to early April

March and April can be the strongest of months as the weather goes back and forth between winter and summer conditions.

I don't think this year is going to be much different, and from a look at the ECMWF 6-week forecast, it is in agreement too.

Here's what is currently suggested...

6th to 12th March
Becoming unsettled as the jet stream develops overhead (see chart).
Low pressure over or north of the UK.
Cool for all.
Periods of rain, heaviest north and west.
Windy at times.

13th March to 19th March
Starting unsettled with low pressure close by.
The low drifts east and the winds become more northwesterly.
Tending to become drier during the final stages of the week.
Rainfall turning more showery.
Risk of some wintry showers over Scotland and hills of northern England and Wales.
Probably drier and bright Ireland and west UK later in the week.

20th March to 26th March
Low to the east and higher pressure just west of Ireland.
Cold, north to northeast flow over all areas.
Showers in the north and east.
Drier to the west with the best sunshine in western areas.
Overnight frost. Near average temperatures days, feeling pleasant in the sunshine.

27th March to 3rd April
The area of high pressure slips north of the UK.
Flow becomes more east to northeasterly.
Plenty of dry weather, but staying cool.
Risk of some slow cloud eastern areas.
Best sunshine in the west.
Overnight frost risk remains, especially northern and west.

4th April to 10th April
Higher pressure drifts away.
Flow becomes more westerly.
More mixed conditions.
Rain in the west and north, drier east and south.
Temperatures closer to average.

11th April to 17th April
Ridge may build to the south, lower pressure north and east.
Driest weather Southern Ireland, southern Wales and Southern England.
Sunny spells here, fair and mild.
Risk of some rain in northern and western Scotland, perhaps some showers in the east.
Nearer average temperatures northern and eastern areas.


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