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MAY 2021 - FINAL GUIDANCE
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Issued: Wednesday 28th April 2021
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net

HEADLINES
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+ A more mixed month
+ Close to average temperatures
+ Still drier in south

FACTORS AFFECTING MAY 2021 FINAL GUIDANCE
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+ Trough early in the month, slipping east
+ Ridge expected to build to the southwest
+ Trough then east of the UK

UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
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+ Trough may linger over the British Isles bringing more rain and a wetter month
+ Higher pressure may build into the south more strongly.

OVERVIEW
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May is expected to be a more mixed month than April. However, there is still uncertainty over the amount of rainfall which will occur. There are indications of a build of higher pressure across Ireland and southern England from time to time which will result in drier days. Temperatures look likely to be close to average for much of the month, although there will be some warmer days.
Overall the month is likely to be quite a messy one with some areas seeing heavy showers, others not so many. The most favoured areas for the showers are likely in the north and east.

BREAKDOWN
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1st to 7th May

Trough extends through the UK.
A mixed to unsettled week, some heavy showers or longer periods of rain.
Staying cool to cold with a risk of overnight frosts.
Showers could be locally torrential, but some areas escaping them.
Sunny spells between the showers, best in the south.

8th May to 14th May
Trough remains in the north and east with showers, some heavy.
Ridge to the west and south, building through Ireland.
Drier conditions with sunny spells in the south and west.
A little milder in these areas but cool in Scotland.
Possibly windy in northern Scotland.

15th May to 22nd May
Weak ridge builds over the UK and Ireland.
Staying drier and milder in many areas, best sunshine to the south.
Showers in Scotland, scattered showers northern England.
Risk of some rain in the far northwest of Scotland.
Milder for all, although temperatures still only near average.

23rd May to 31st May
Ridge again affecting western and southern areas, tendency towards drier weather here.
Showers may continue in Scotland and northern England at times.
Risk of some heavy showers in the east.
Sunny spells between.
Milder.

PROBABILITIES
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Temperature

- Very warm 10%
- Warm 15%
- Average 25%
- Cool 25%
- Cold 25%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 10%
- Wet 20%
- Average 30%
- Dry 25%
- Very Dry 15%

CONFIDENCE
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Confidence is moderate.

**ends**

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