Now that we are back into an unsettled pattern focus is turning to any potential for pressure to be building mid-month.

There was a time when the high was seen as building back, albeit briefly around 17th May.

However, the GFS ensemble model did consistently dispute this and always showed that a trough would be prevalent throughout.

That's now how the ECMWF is seeing things... notice now the trough through the UK, higher heights (high pressure) to the west (the orange colour) and lower pressure to the east (blue colour). This hints at a rather mixed, showery regime affecting the UK, i.e. no prolonged high pressure.

To confirm the meteogram of pressure, again from the ECMWF, shows that although pressure may briefly rise above average around 20th Mat, it's not long before it is back down to average.

So, what do we take from this?

Probably that much of mid-May is mixed. Yes, there will be drier days now and then but overall we will probably see some rain or showers falling in most parts of the country on most days through the month.

Perhaps 'normal service' has resumed?