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ECMWF 6-Week forecast to late June

Wow, we are really getting into summer now aren't we? The forecast from today's 6-week ECMWF model is taking us into the second half of June.

There are some signs of an improvement in the weather, but the indications are this is going to be hit and miss and any dry spells are rather short lived.

So, these are the details for the next 6-weeks ...

15th May to 21st May
Trough remains over the British Isles (see chart).
Jet stream, close by.
Remaining unsettled, rain and showers.
Expect any dry days to be short lived.
Temperatures around average.

22nd May to 29th May
The trough moves to the east.
Signs of a weak ridge of high pressure building from the west.
Early showers may give way to several days of drier, sunnier weather later in the week.
Possibly becoming warm for a time.
Best sunshine in west, then transferring east.

30th May to 5th June
The ridge is likely to be in-situ for a time.
Generally dry and perhaps warm to start.
A general slip to showered weather later in the week.
Always the risk of some thundery showers in the Southeast.

6th June to 12th June
Ridge appears to be maintained in the south.
Probably staying fair here, sunny spells.
Showers further north, some heavy.
Milder for all.

13th June to 20th June
Ridge slips away for a time bringing showers.
It may be that pressure builds again towards the end of the week.
Better conditions developing with sunny spells.
Mostly dry.


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