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ECMWF keeps lots of high pressure

We looked through the latest ECMWF charts in Tuesday's Look Ahead, and the summary is that a lot of anticyclonic weather should be expected during the weeks ahead!

So are we set for a dry, benign end to summer and start to autumn, or is this model too optimistic? Time will tell...

Here's the week by week thoughts according to the ECMWF long range projections (remember, it's only one model story!):

 

6-13th September

High pressure across Britain and northern Europe.

Low pressure to the southwest.

Warm then thundery.

Fresher into weekend, high pressure rebuilds.

 

13-20th September

High pressure centred north and east of Britain.

East to northeasterly flows in the south.

Cool for a time, warmer air tries to push back north.

Low pressure to the southwest may drift back in to bring rain or showers.

Atlantic jet stream nearby, but does it ever break through the block?

 

20-27th September

High pressure northeast, low pressure southwest.

Atlantic lows drifting into Biscay.

Staying mainly dry, but some rain may affect southwest.

Warmer than average.

 

27th Sep-4th October

High pressure stays nearby, although some pattern changes.

West to northwesterly flow may move into northern Britain, some cooler, showery weather.

Drier south and southwest.

Nearer average temperatures, cooler nights.

 

4th-11th October

Broadly high pressure influences the country.

Settled, dry conditions favoured.

Some fronts may graze to the northwest.

Warmer air trying to return from south.

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