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NOVEMBER 2021 - FINAL GUIDANCE
===========================
Issued: Sunday 31st October 2021
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net

HEADLINES
==========
+ A mixed month
+ Unsettled start
+ Cooler end to the month

FACTORS AFFECTING NOVEMBER 2021 FINAL GUIDANCE
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+ Jet stream in north at first brings unsettled weather
+ High pressure established to the south
+ High drifts north later in month bringing easterly flow

UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
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+ Jet stream may weaken earlier allowing higher pressure to be more dominant
+ Pressure may not build to north later in the month
+ Trough may be more fixed middle of month so more unsettled for all

OVERVIEW
==========
November is expected to be a month of varied weather. It starts cool, although nothing extraordinary, and showery. Conditions then tend to turn more unsettled into the second week, although then drier in the south. Scotland may be windy with a risk of gales during this week.
By the third week of the month all areas may become more unsettled for a time. Turning drier to the south.
Higher pressure may then build in the final week of the mont, bringing a more easterly wind and cooler conditions for all.

BREAKDOWN
============
1st November to 7th November
A cool week.
Unsettled with periods of rain and showers.
Most of the rain and showers will be around coasts.
Drier later in the week, but cloudier, less cold too.
Potentially wetter towards the weekend.

8th November to 14th November
Staying mixed through northern Scotland, windy at times.
Drier weather southern and eastern parts of the UK.
A fair amount of cloud, especially in the west.
Risk of drizzle on western coasts and hills.

15th November to 21st November
Period of more unsettled weather for all early in the week.
Chance of some heavy rain in northern and west, windy too.
Risk of some wintry showers in Scotland.
Temperatures closer to average.
Drier in the south later in the week, milder too.

22nd November to 30th November
Higher pressure north of the UK.
There is a chance of an easterly flow developing in the south.
Turning cooler in the south.
Drier in the north.

PROBABILITIES
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Temperature
- Very warm 15%
- Warm 20%
- Average 30%
- Cool 20%
- Cold 15%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 10%
- Wet 25%
- Average 30%
- Dry 20%
- Very Dry 15%

CONFIDENCE
============
Confidence is moderate.

**ends**