+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++
MAY 2022 - FINAL GUIDANCE
========================
Issued: Saturday 30th April 2022
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net
HEADLINES
==========
+ Dry start
+ More unsettle from mid-month?
+ Near average temperatures
FACTORS AFFECTING MAY 2022 FINAL GUIDANCE
=========================================
+ Position of jet stream is critical
+ It may be further north which would bring drier, warmer weather to southern UK
UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
======================================
+ Jet stream further south bringing drier weather in northern areas
+ If jet stream is further north the south may be drier
OVERVIEW
==========
High pressure over or close to the British Isles to start the month bringing much dry weather and relatively small amounts of rain. There are indications that conditions will be turning more unsettled into the middle of the month, although how wet it may become is uncertain with models at variants about where the jet stream will be located. At this time we expected near average rainfall amounts and cooler conditions into mid-month. By the end of the month there are some hints of drier weather for a time in the north, although still showery to the south.
BREAKDOWN
============
1st May to 7th May
Ridge of high pressure over and west of the British Isles.
Plenty of dry weather, sunny spells, some warm days.
Showers are likely to develop, most over hills, some thundery.
Risk of turning more unsettled in western Scotland and western Ireland later.
Turning cooler in the northwest later.
8th May to 14th May
Ridge gets squeezed to the south.
Mostly dry in southern England and Wales at first.
Rain in Scotland and Ireland, mostly north and west.
A tendency towards more unsettled and mixed conditions later.
Most showers or rain then in the west.
Cooler overall, although still some warm days in the southeast.
15th May to 21st May
A more unsettled week is possible.
Westerly flow bringing periods of rain north and west.
Most showers and rain in the west and north, breezy at times.
Tending to be less rain east and south.
Temperatures close to average.
22nd May to 31st May
Unsettled at first, most rain north and west.
Drier east overall, bests sunshine east and south.
Possibly turning drier west and north later.
Always risk of showers or some rain in the south.
Temperatures near average.
PROBABILITIES
=============
Temperature
- Very warm 10%
- Warm 25%
- Average 30%
- Cool 25%
- Cold 10%
Rainfall
- Very Wet 5%
- Wet 20%
- Average 35%
- Dry 25%
- Very Dry 15%
CONFIDENCE
============
Confidence is moderate.
**ends**
