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ECMWF Outlook to late June

There's a caveat on today's forecast as the ECMWF model is not being consistent in how it sees late May and early June developing.

So we need to treat this one cautiously, bearing in mind that the analogue forecast continues to go with the idea of higher pressure dominating in May, especially in the south and east.

But here's what the latest ECMWF 6-Week forecast is saying...

14th Nay to 20th May
Ridge of high pressure centred east of the UK and Ireland.
Fair conditions, warm or very warm for some, especially in the east.
A trough west of Ireland will be pushing showers eastwards.
The showers and outbreaks of rain into southwest England during the week.
Perhaps a little cooler in western Ireland.
Breezy at times in Ireland and western UK.

21st May to 27th May
Ridge to the east collapses south.
Trough to the northwest of Scotland.
A more southwest flow developing.
Some rain northern and northwest Scotland as well as north and west Ireland.
Ridge of high pressure south at first bringing drier , warmer weather.
Tending to turn more mixed in the south.
Temperatures cooler or just above average.

28th May to 3rd June
Ridge may build back in through this period, especially to the south.
Becoming fair for a few days for most with good sunny spells.
Warm and dry.
Risk of some patchy rain in far northwest of Scotland.

4th June to 10th June
Tending to remain dry under weak ridge of high pressure.
Sunny spells, warm overall.
Showers may develop from mid-week.
Risk of thunderstorms later in week.
Warm start then nearer average temperatures.

11th June to 17th June
Trough develops over the UK.
Showery conditions, some of the showers could be heavy, especially north and east.
Ridge of higher pressure builds to west.
Flow turns more northwesterly.
Drier in west.
Cooler in northwest flow.

18th June to 24th June
Trough extends through the British Isles.
Sunny spells and showers.
Showers may be heavy at times,
Cool overall.


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