With the jet stream forecast to head north of the UK and Ireland, and a ridge of high pressure building as a consequence, the idea is building of a drier spell of weather ahead.

The chart below for Monday 4th July shows the jet stream as a weak streak northeast of Scotland.

As a Premium member you can view these charts at the pro-models section of the website here.

So the question becomes when will this drier weather break? And that's a tough one to answer because all the signs are that the westerly flow persists through July.

If that is the case then, despite troughs and low pressure being close by, actual rainfall amounts for many areas may be lower than expected given the flow pattern.

The ECMWF 6-week forecast is out today so we should know more.

Watch this space!