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JANUARY 2023 - FINAL GUIDANCE
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Issued: Wednesday 28th December 2022
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net

HEADLINES
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+ Starting mixed
+ Colder second half January
+ Risk wintry conditions mid-month

FACTORS AFFECTING JANUARY 2023 FINAL GUIDANCE
===============================================
+ Battle between colder air to north and milder air to south
+ High pressur to the east, extends into the British Isles at times

UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
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+ Cold air does not make it to British Isles
+ Low pressure not developing after mid-month and so drier

OVERVIEW
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Indications for January are that the weather is going to be turning cooler, perhaps cold fromt mid-month. However, confidence is low in this assumption, but we are getting stronger signals from models that this will be the case. Perhaps more unsettled for a few days around or just after mid-month with the potential for some wintry weather, although caution should be exercised as milder air may intrude. There is potential for some very cold conditions, although this is uncertain.

BREAKDOWN
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1st January to 7th January
Higher pressure east, lower pressure west.
Generally mild in southerly winds.
Rain in Ireland and west Uk at times.
Driest in the east.
Becoming drier for all later.
tending to turn a little cooler laer in the week.

8th January to 14th January
High pressure east.
Turning cooler, possibly cold on some days as wind becomes easterly.
Dry in northern and east, severe overnight frosts.
Risk of some rain, possibly sleet & snow in south.
Overnight frosts under clearing skies.

15th January to 21st January
Lower pressure edges into Ireland.
Remaining cool to cold for many.
A risk of wintry west, snow in places.
Highest snow risk in north, may be rain west and south.
Low confidence but needs watching for risk of significant cold snap.

22nd January to 30th January
Higher pressure building back to east.
Staying chilly to cold.
Drier weather overal but overnight frosts and fog.
Rain at times western Ireland, may be sleet here.
Wintry showers east and south.
Probably becoming milder through the week.

PROBABILITIES
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Temperature
- Very warm 15%
- Warm 20%
- Average 25%
- Cool 30%
- Cold 20%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 10%
- Wet 20%
- Average 25%
- Dry 30%
- Very Dry 15%

CONFIDENCE
============
Confidence is low.