This image of the forecast MJO for the next 30-days really sums up quite well how models are dealing with the weather for the weeks ahead; it just isn't sure! Notice how the MJO is weak and circling around a very wet central position, but then two members of the CFS

With temperatures still hitting 20C across many areas of the south of the British Isles it seems odd to be talking of colder weather ahead. But this 6-week guidance from the ECMWF does indeed look forward to the second half of November. Here's the latest ... 14th October to 20th October Higher pressure at