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St Swithins : Myths, Media and Models : Analysis

St Swithin's Day as forecast continued in keeping with the month of July so far...COOL WET and DULL as a developing area of low pressure tracked from south-west through midlands and became slow moving into the North Sea and with the onset of NE/E flow rain become prolonged and heavy.             

This resulted in the wettest ST. Swithin's day across Birmingham since 1973 and the 3rd wettest since 1880, total rainfall near 20mm near city centre though 30 to 50mm eastwards into Lincolnshire. With persistent cloud cover in was the dullest since 2020 (though on that occasion the day was dry), and the coolest since 2010 though similar to 1973 with maximum temperature 17C.

Assigning a score to Maximum temperature, rainfall and sunshine this was the POORest since 2012 and similar to 1933, 1938, 1954, 1957 and 1977, summers which either preceded (1954) or followed (1977, 2024)  a POOR or GOOD summer respectively.

recent media speculation has forecast Summer 2024 to be the "soggiest since 1912 with some 56 days of rain"  and   "Heat dome in July from middle of the month"

at present July is the coolest since 2019, driest since 2023 and the dullest since 1965....

deep dive look to follow.....

John

 

 

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