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So where has Summer gone ?

A question i was asked just recently, the answer may depend on how Summer is defined, if June, July and August then ytes Summer has finished and we are now into meterological Autumn! the name of the months of Summer and of course Summer itself is historically defined and suits

Could be soggy start to September 5th and 8th days to watch

A selection of model forecast output run each day since 1st for Birmingham shown as the meteograms and 2 snapshots for 8th Septemeber, the GFS meteogram are l-r 1st, 2nd and 3rd respectively shows from top-btm 1000-500hPa Thickness (Dm), 850hPa temperature (degC), wind flags (ff knts and dd deg), Downward

Summer 2024 : quick review

Summer (JJA) 2024 coolest since 2019 and -0.4degC below, driest with 88% of seasonal average since 2022 and dullest since 2021 (80%) so overall can be classed as average!  These stats are based on the 100 year record for Birmingham, though in the 1st instance may be taken as being

St Swithins : Myths, Media and Models : Analysis

St Swithin's Day as forecast continued in keeping with the month of July so far...COOL WET and DULL as a developing area of low pressure tracked from south-west through midlands and became slow moving into the North Sea and with the onset of NE/E flow rain become prolonged and heavy. 

St. Swithin’s Myths, Media and Models : a taster

It's St. Swithin's Day, Monday 15th July, a quick look at the past can reveal whether this is merely fiction or fact. The myth (lore) behind St. Swithin's  is that if it rains on the day, rain will occur on each of the next 40 days, to quote St. Swithun's day if

May : folklore, climatology, model

May is often the month which brings the first warmth of early summer, daylength is still increasing, the atmosphere warms with depth with increasing irradiance and daytime maximum temperatures respond with a 4C increase in average temperature during the month.  Highest temperature is generally above 23C and can top 30C

It always seems to rain at the weekend; or does it?

UK forecasts for this weekend give high daily amounts and over recent months our perception might be "that it always rains at the weekend", but what does the rainfall record show? The graphic below shows the histogram of daily rainfall for the period 1881 to 2024 (end of March) just short

A look at …. rainfall and the number 18

Recent media weather news has linked the number 18 with rainfall falling over a period of time as shown by the headlines below : One particular bit of weather trivia is about record rainfall over England in the past 18 months ending March 2024, which has been the wettest since rainfall

Teleconnections…..Spring temperature and rainfall

Teleconnections in terms of atmosphere are pressure gradient driven patterns which influence weather at varying spatial and temporal distance.  There are 3 main global pressure oscillations which in turn are linked with Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and jet stream intensity. ENSO  : El nino/La Nina and Southern Oscillation is an index

A look at Easter…. past, now and yet to come!

Easter is a moveable feast which can occur between 22nd March and 25th April with just a few since 1800, including now 2024 straddling across March and April.  Taking a sample of years from 1800 there have been just 54 occasions when Easter Sunday has occurred in March compared with

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