model forecast for the next 10 days show prolonged,heavy rain and thunderstorms with areas of low pressure moving from Biscay to southern England and whereas we had warm Tropical Continental air during the early month, now we have cool and moist mixture of alternating Polar Maritime (from the Northwest) and Polar Continental air (northeast) though well modified having moved across a 'warm' North Sea (North Sea SST are the highest of the year in September).

In summary  mid-month: mean  maximum  temperature 17C being the coolest since 2017 3mm rainfall driest since 2020 and 55hrs of sunshine sunniest since 2022 with pressure the highest since 1988.

Forecast issued today for most of late-month give average maximum 15C coolest since 2012, rainfall 94mm the wettest since 2019 (138mm) and 1976 and around 16hours sunshine dullest 2010 and based on a modified Summer Index comes out POOR and the POORest since 1993.

Taking the extended summer form May to September there will be 5 GOOD decads (early & mid May, late July and early August) and 5 POOR decads late May, mid June, early and late September being overall the POORest combination since 1972.

Forecast meteograms for Birmingham issued over past 72hours

John