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Heat in June now 2500x more likely? I despair at the destruction of my science!

Sorry, this is a soapbox moment. I became suspicious when reading this https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/21/heatwave-expected-deaths-england-and-wales-analysis Something didn't quite feel right about the claims being made. Notice there's not official attribution to any peer reviewed paper, just a load of scientists being quoted and giving their opinions. It was easy to find the source of the story,

July 2025 – Preliminary Guidance

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ JULY 2025 - PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE =============================== Issued: Friday 20th June 2025 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Mixed start + Pressure building and drier + Some thunderstorms in south FACTORS AFFECTING JULY 2025 PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE ================================================ + High pressure building, intially

5 things for the weekend

  ☀️ Hot in the South – Very warm across southern and southeastern areas, peaking at 32°C on Saturday. 🌦️ Showers from the West – Rain pushes in from the southwest Saturday afternoon, spreading northeastward. 🌧️ Unsettled Sunday in the West – Frequent, sometimes heavy, showers over Ireland and western

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