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APRIL 2026 - INITIAL WEATHER GUIDANCE
====================================
Issued: Wednesday 18th March 2026
Contact: simon@weatherweb.net

HEADLINES
==========
+ Cool start
+ Risk early frosts
+ More unsettled second half of month

FACTORS AFFECTING APRIL 2026 INITIAL GUIDANCE
============================================
+ Northerly flow at first brings cooler weather
+ Lower pressure developing southwest Ireland later

UNCERTAINTIES - WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
======================================
+ High pressure is west builds further east
+ The high pressure is further west leading to more unsettled weather

OVERVIEW
=========
With a northerly flow early in the month and high pressure to the west, low pressure to the east, a chilly start is expected. The northerly flow also bringing showers, most in the north and east with some being heavy. From mid-month lower pressure may become slow moving southwest of Ireland and whilst bringing rain, it may also allow milder weather into the south. Staying cool in northern Scotland until late in the month.

BREAKDOWN
===========
1st to 7th April
High pressure south of Iceland.
A north to northeast flow.
Risk of overnight frost in more sheltered areas.
Cool to cold, especially north and east.
Showers at times, mostly north and east.
Risk of more persistent rain at times in the east.
West and south having best of any sunshine but also a lot of cloud.

8th to 14th April
Flow becomes more northeasterly.
Staying cool to cold for all.
Further risk of overnight frosts, mainly west.
Showers at times in east.
Most cloud in east.
Best sunshine in west where also drier.

15th to 21st April
Lower pressure may develop southwest of Ireland.
More unsettled, rain Ireland and southern UK.
Rain could be heavy at times in these areas.
Cloudy east some rain in eastern Scotland and eastern England.
Driest and brightest northwest Scotland.
Cool to cold for many but milder southwest.

22nd to 30th April
Low pressure southern Ireland.
Staying unsettled, periods of rain and heavy showers.
Most rain south and west.
Probably drier Scotland but cloud eastern coasts.
Drier western Scotland.
Milder England, Wales and Ireland.
Staying cool to cold Scotland.

PROBABILITIES
=============
Temperature
- Very warm 5%
- Warm 20%
- Average 25%
- Cool 30%
- Cold 20%

Rainfall
- Very Wet 20%
- Wet 35%
- Average 25%
- Dry 15%
- Very Dry 5%

CONFIDENCE
===========
Low to moderate.

**ends**