The latest summer guidance from the C3S is available.

This takes several models (listed at the top of the image below) and then shows the mean of them all.

The guidance for the months of June, July and August is below and look at the yellow colours. This shows a 40 to 50% likelihood of surface pressure being above the long term average in the areas shown, basically the whole of the British Isles and Ireland.

I did some drilling down deeper into there numbers and there is a definite trend for pressure to rise during the summer. June is shown as more mixed but then the pressure rising in the second half of July, leading to a high pressure August. So an improving situation as the summer progresses.

Temperatures (not shown) are significantly warmer than average with rainfall near to below average over the same period.

Effectively predicting a warm, dry summer which really gets going from mid-July.

We are hinting at a different story, but let's see what the next couple of weeks of analogues bring.