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ECMWF 6-Week Outlook to mid-June

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

As spring turns to meteorological summer on 1st June, this 6-week forecast from the ECMWF takes us into the middle of the month. Things are forecast to improve the first week of June after a mixed May. Here are the details ... 11th May to 17th May Low pressure over Scandinavia extending into the

5 Week Ahead Weather Things To Know

by Daniel Graves -

Hi folks, I hope you've had a good weekend (despite the murky Sunday) and that you enjoy a well-earned bank holiday today. Here's 5 notes about the weather in the week ahead: 1 - Bank holiday Monday: Many will actually see a dry and bright day, particularly Wales, central and northern England,

Heavy Rain Saturday Into Sunday

by Daniel Graves -

I spoke of a notable rainfall event Saturday into Sunday last time I was on shift, and this event will indeed come to fruition. Some details are yet to be sorted out, but I do believe we can at least paint the picture. I've copied two charts below, first is the

5 things for the weekend

by Filotas Paschos -

🌦️ Mixed weekend overall, with sunshine at times but also frequent showers spreading across many areas ⛈️ Some showers could turn heavy and thundery, especially across Wales, Ireland and southern parts of England 🌤️ Saturday should begin fairly bright for many before conditions turn more unsettled later 🌬️ Cooler air gradually pushes in

May 2026 – Final Guidance

by Daniel Graves -

+++ THIS FORECAST IS FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS ONLY AND MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED OR COPIED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. +++ MAY 2026 - FINAL WEATHER GUIDANCE ==================================== Issued: Thursday 30th April 2026 Contact: simon@weatherweb.net HEADLINES ========== + Slack low pressure early month + Variable weather regimes + Mild to warm, a few brief cool spells FACTORS AFFECTING MAY

NAO stays flat in the coming months

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

It's no surprise to see the NAO running rather flat for the rest of spring and summer. This is what tends to happen as the northern hemispheric summer reduces pressure gradients across the North Atlantic. However, the NAO is still useful as giving an overview and here is the latest for

El Nino – Super?

by Dr. Simon Keeling -

The latest forecast for this years El Niño event (remember, El Niño is a naturally occurring event) from several models, compiled by the TIR. Dynamic models (bold purple line) go for around +1.7 whilst Dynamic are +1.3. There's a few outliers putting it into a Super El Niño category, but most go

Signs of a Pattern Change

by Filotas Paschos -

Hello all! Through the remainder of April, the overall pattern looks relatively stable, with pressure holding fairly steady and suggesting largely settled conditions. However, as we move into the first week of May, the ensemble guidance begins to show a gradual downward trend in pressure, pointing toward a potential change in

5 things for the weekend

by Filotas Paschos -

🌦️ A few showers lingering across Ireland and parts of Scotland, especially early on ☀️ England and Wales enjoying largely dry and bright conditions 🌤️ Sunny spells developing more widely as the weekend progresses 🌬️ Noticeably cooler feel along eastern coasts with onshore breezes 🌥️ A mix of cloud

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