Below is the 15-day forecast for a spot point in central England from the ECMWF ensemble model. It's interesting in showing some questions next week as to how fair conditions become. Notice the rainfall amounts for next week which seem to rise after the weekend. The middle chart shows the reason for this

There's something comforting about the forecast taking us through the mid-summer months of July and into August. But let's not think about the shorter days which come later! Here's the latest from the ECMWF 6-Week model ... 30th June to 6th July Ridge of high pressure through Ireland, Wales and much of England. Overall fair

Look at the 50hPa chart below for 6am Sunday morning. A ridge has build, although the lines are close together through the UK and so the jet stream isn't far away. But with that ridge high pressure just can't sustain as the ridge axis is not sharp enough and so the

Sorry, this is a soapbox moment. I became suspicious when reading this https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/21/heatwave-expected-deaths-england-and-wales-analysis Something didn't quite feel right about the claims being made. Notice there's not official attribution to any peer reviewed paper, just a load of scientists being quoted and giving their opinions. It was easy to find the source of the story,