The ECMWF 46-day came out yesterday, but I haven't had chance until to update you on its latest output.
It is in good agreement with the CFS and other long range models about conditions up to the end of April and into early May; that's chilly and rather mixed conditions, perhaps
As the cold weather arrives through this weekend, so the risk of frost increases.
The forecasts below could actually be a little conservative with lower values in rural areas. As a rule of thumb the coldest places are likely to be in the west, central and southern parts of the UK
As if we needed more evidence, just look at how the ECMWF sees 850mb temperatures falling this weekend.
That's into the realms of -5C at 850mb, cold enough for snow, although at this time of year it would point to snow over higher ground.
It'll be feeling bitter for all, snow or
Just take a look at the graph below. Look how the CFS model sees the ENSO plummeting over the coming weeks, headlong unto a strong La Nina.
It bottoms out, unsurprisingly in December and if it come true would have a major impact on the weather this year, although will to some