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MJO shows way to go in phases 2 & 3

The MJO forecast from NCEP for the next couple of weeks is below ... It's highlighting the fact that we stay in phases 2 and 3 (the green line) through the next couple of weeks. These phases tie in with a close to normal pressure distribution of the UK, and generally points to

Warming waters around the UK enhance showers

After months of colder than average temperatures, sea surface values around UK waters have suddenly slipped into a warmer than average category. This change could have an impact on the severity of showers next week. The map below shows the latest sea surface temperature anomaly map, produced from data on Thursday 9th

Analogues call a weak La Nina & wet winter

Hung Van Den Dool's analogue forecasts always make for fascinating watching. The latest EBSO forecasts using the analogue method call for a very weak Lan Nina. As you can see from the chart below it calls around a -0.4 as a maximum, having fallen rapidly into La Nina through the summer. This

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