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Latest ENSO plumes stick with a weak La Nina

The International Research Institute have released the latest clusters of ENSO predictions from the main models (below). The mean value seems to be hovering around -0.7C (we forecast -0.8C). Notice how most stick with the La Nina into 2016. So confidence in the forecast is fairly high and this builds confidence in

NAO tells a mixed story for August

The NAO prediction from the CFS continues to lean into more neutral territory well into September. You can see below how, despite a weaker westerly flow, the NAO hangs around neutral to negative, indicating a rather mixed August and September ahead. Of course this is only one index and others lean to

Sunday rain latest

Sunday is a critical one for many of you. Here's the latest from the midday Thursday run of the GFS... Notice focus for the rain over southern Scotland, northwest England, east Ireland and west wales. This is the position forecast from 1pm to 7pm. I have doubts o the timing, but certainly

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